Electoral Fallout Amidst Challenging Economic Reality
The Spencer Report — January 20, 2010
On January 19, 2010, there was a special election held in Massachusetts for the U.S. Senate seat vacated by the death of former Senator Edward M. Kennedy. The campaign for the vacant seat was marked by fierce political fighting within the Democratic party in order to craft a message which resonated with voters who are currently facing huge economic challenges, a burgeoning federal deficit, and widespread disagreement over the Obama Administration’s strategy to enact health care reform. The Republican party focused upon a candidate and a campaign which leveraged on voter anger at large Wall Street bail outs, high rates of unemployment, and potentially large deficit spending to accomplish health care reforms. Senator-elect Brown gathered 51.9% of the vote compared with the 47.1% accumulated by the Democratic challenger Martha Coakley. The election attracted voter turnout to the tune of 2.25 million people, which was about 73% of the total voters who turned out in the 2008 presidential election. The consequences of this election are significant, as the Democratic Party has lost its supermajority of 60 seats in the U.S. Senate, an advantage that allowed votes to be conducted on a party line basis and limited Republican filibusters.
The legislative agenda adopted by the Democratic leaders in Congress and the President is now largely at risk of being irrelevant in the remainder of the Congressional session leading up to mid-term elections in November 2010. The Administration and Democratic members of Congress will now likely be forced to appeal to moderate Republicans in the hopes of passing any legislation designed to address a wide range of issues including job creation, financial industry regulations and health care. For the time being, Democratic leaders have insisted that it is their intent to move the health care reform measure through Congress quickly. Some members of the House have indicated that they will adopt the Senate version of the bill and attempt to gather the 218 votes needed to clear the House. In order to move the House-passed bill, the Obama Administration and Senate Majority Leader Reid (D-NV) would have to pass a corrections bill through Congress by using budget reconciliation procedures. Budget reconciliation procedures only require 51 votes to pass a bill.
The health care reform debate may begin anew if the House cannot agree to adopt and pass the Senate version of the bill. The focus of the Administration and Congress may subtly shift to engaging on public policy debates to shore up an ailing economy and provide a responsive set of policy initiatives designed to increase jobs. The economic downturn which has resulted in sustained unemployment at levels not seen since the Great Depression is only adding to the desire of many politicians seeking reelection in 2010 to address employment and job issues. The upcoming State of the Union Address by the President will likely be the Democrats first opportunity to unveil any new economic and legislative initiatives. The Republican Party may be poised to gather more seats in Congress in the 2010 elections by focusing upon progressive policies tailored to improve the economy and spearheading efforts to ensure that Americans return to the workplace at a higher pace.